Last updated on October 13, 2023  

Australia vs Samoa Predictions & Odds

If you have been living under a rock, this weekend features a thrilling match between Australia and Samoa. You could argue they are two of the strongest teams in the competition.

There’s a lot of talent and experience floating around, but who will come out on top?

If we’re going to put bets down, it’s important to analyse the strengths and weaknesses of both sides. Equally as important is looking at the odds and predictions from the bookies.

TLDR: Australia is the favourite to win, but Samoa could pull off an upset if they play with passion and discipline.

Why I think the Aussies will get up

There’s no doubt that this upcoming game is going to be a thrilling match. Both teams have a lot of talent and passion. I’m biassed but I believe that the Aussies have the edge. Here’s why:

  • The Aussies have much more experience and depth in their squad. There’s a few players having played in the World Cup before and and other international tournaments.
  • The Aussies have a strong and balanced team, with a powerful forward pack, a creative backline, and a very reliable kicker. There’s also the home advantage. Playing in front of their loyal fans at the Queensland Country Bank Stadium we have a good record.

I think that the Aussies will get up and win the game against Samoa, despite the challenge that the Samoans will pose.

Why I think Samoa will get up

Samoa may have a slight edge over the Aussies for several reasons. Here a couple of them:

  • There’s a sense of cohesive team spirit which is forged by their shared culture and identity. They play with passion and pride and support each other on and off the field.
  • Samoa has a powerful and dynamic forward pack, led by captain Jack Lam. If needed, they can dominate the scrums and the breakdowns. They also provide a solid platform for their backs to launch attacks.
  • Samoa has a very versatile and creative backline featuring the players: Tim Nanai-Williams, Alapati Leiua, and Ed Fidow. All three create opportunities from anywhere on the pitch and have the speed and skill to finish them off.
  • There’s a reliable and experienced kicker in Tusi Pisi, who can slot penalties and conversions from any angle or distance. He has the ability to control the game with his tactical kicking and decision making.

Samoa are in with a good chance to get up over Australia in this game. They have slightly more strengths and fewer weaknesses than their opponents. There’s also the motivation and the confidence to pull off an upset. It will be a tough and tight contest, it’ll be a close match

What do the bookies say?

The Kangaroos are the clear favourites to win the Pacific Championships final against Toa Samoa, according to the latest betting odds. Here are some of the odds from different Australian bookmakers at the time of writing:

  • Sportsbet: Australia $1.05, Samoa $10.00
  • Ladbrokes: Australia $1.09, Samoa $6.80
  • Bet365: Australia $1.10, Samoa $7.00
  • Betfair: Australia $1.12, Samoa $6.50

These odds reflect the dominance of Australia in international rugby league, as well as the impressive form they have shown so far. They have scored 164 points and conceded only 18 in their four games, while Samoa have scored 98 and conceded 74. However, Samoa have also shown resilience and determination, especially in their stunning upset win over England in the semi-final. Samoa will be hoping to pull off another miracle against the mighty Kangaroos.

The bottom line.

This is a huge game between Australia and Samoa and is expected to be a close contest. Both teams are coming to the fight with strong players and fans. But if we take a close look at the current odds and statistics, Australia has a clear edge over Samoa. This is 99% driven by the more experience and depth in their squad.

This doesn’t mean that Samoa can’t pull off an amazing upset. They’ve shown in the past that they can play with passion and skill. Still, I think the Aussies will win!

If you’re going to bet on this game do it with caution and responsibility, as there is no guarantee of the outcome.

Sports betting is a form of gambling and involves risk. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.

John Power
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