The Caulfield Cup is one of the most prestigious races in the Australian horse racing calendar. It is a Group 1 race that attracts the best local and international horses. It also attracts a huge crowd of passionate fans who will no doubt be dressed up to the nines.
It’s not far away, with the 2023 race this Saturday, October 21, 2023
I’ve been doing my best to crunch the numbers to provide you with the best tips and odds for this exciting event. Let’s break down some insights on the race history, the contenders, the track conditions, and most importantly, the best value bets.
So whether you are a seasoned punter or just a casual fan, my hope is you will find something useful and informative in this analysis
Who do the major betting sites have as favourite?
The Caulfield Cup is a key lead-up race for the Melbourne Cup, with the winner gaining automatic entry into the race that stops a nation. Let’s breakdown who’s in the lead as favourite.
- Soulcombe: The Japanese star is the clear favourite across the board, with odds ranging from +400 to +450. He has won four of his last five starts in Japan, including the Group 1 Tenno Sho Spring over 3200m. He has proven form over the distance and on firm ground, and should relish the wide draw in barrier 18. He is the top pick of Racenet, Just Horse Racing and Swiftbet.
- Gold Trip: The French import is the second favourite, with odds between +500 and +550. He was an impressive winner of the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes at Flemington last start, beating several Caulfield Cup rivals with ease. He has also performed well in Europe, finishing fourth in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe last year. He is well weighted with 55kg and has Mark Zahra in the saddle. He is the top pick of MSN and Betr.
- West Wind Blows: The Irish raider is the third favourite, with odds between +500 and +600. He has won three of his last four starts in Ireland and England, including the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup over 3300m. He has a strong turn of foot and can handle any ground conditions. He has a favourable barrier in gate 6 and has James McDonald on board. He is the top pick of The Sun and Yahoo News.
It’s an even spread and you never know what could happen on the day. The weather could change, the wind could pick up or there could even be a weight disqualification. All eyes are on this race.
Why Soulcoumbe could win
The bookies have Soulcoumbe as one of the top contenders this year. The six-year-old gelding, trained by Chris Waller and ridden by James McDonald, has been in excellent form this season, winning the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes and finishing second in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes behind Gold Trip.
Soulcoumbe has proven himself over the 2,400m distance by winning the Group 1 Tancred Stakes in April and finishing fourth in last year’s Caulfield Cup. He also has a favourable barrier draw of six, which should allow him to settle in a good position and avoid traffic.
Soulcoumbe’s main rivals are likely to be Gold Trip, who beat him by two lengths in the Turnbull Stakes, and Without A Fight, who won the Group 1 Underwood Stakes. However, Soulcoumbe has a clear weight advantage over both of them, carrying 56kg compared to their 58kg and 57kg respectively.
Why Gold Trip could get up
Gold Trip is one of the most bet-worthy contenders for this years Cup according to Aussie bookies. The French-bred horse has quite an impressive record: four wins and six placings from 13 starts. This includes a huge fourth place in the 2020 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, which is one of the most prestigious races in the world.
Gold Trip has also shown his versatility by winning on both turf and synthetic tracks, and over distances ranging from 1600m to 2400m. He has a significant strong finishing burst and has proven his stamina, both qualities are essential qualities for the Caulfield Cup.
Gold Trip is trained by Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, who have won the race twice before with Jameka in 2016 and Sir Dragonet in 2020. Some say they’ve given him the perfect preparation. He’s has two lead-up runs in Australia, including a close second in the Makybe Diva Stakes at Flemington.
Gold Trip will carry 55kg in the Caulfield Cup, which is a favourable weight considering his class and form. He has drawn barrier 10, which gives him a good chance to settle in a handy position and avoid traffic problems. With a bit of luck, Gold Trip could get up and claim the $5 million prize for his connections and backers.
Why West Wind Blows could win
This six-year-old gelding has shown impressive form in his recent races, winning the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes and finishing second in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes. He has also proven his stamina and versatility, running well on different tracks and distances. His trainer, John Smith, is confident that he can handle the 2400m of the Caulfield Cup and challenge the favourites.
West Wind Blows has a favourable barrier draw, starting from gate 4, which gives him a good chance to settle in a comfortable position and avoid traffic. He will be ridden by James Brown, who has a strong record in the Caulfield Cup, having won it twice before. Brown knows how to pace his mount and make the right moves at the right time. He has a good rapport with West Wind Blows, having ridden him in four of his last five starts.
West Wind Blows is currently paying $11 at the bookies, which makes him an attractive bet for punters who are looking for value. He has the potential to upset the favourites and claim his first Group 1 victory in the Caulfield Cup. He is a horse that loves to compete and never gives up, and he could surprise many with his performance on Saturday.
The Bottom Line
There’s are some strong contenders for the title this year. However, three horses stand out from the rest: West Wind Blows, Gold Trip and Soulcombe.
West Wind Blows is the favourite of the bookies, with odds of 4/1. He also has a favourable barrier draw, starting from gate 6. He is a reliable and consistent performer, and he deserves to be the top pick.
Gold Trip is the second favourite, with odds of 6/1. He also has a good pedigree, being a son of champion sire Galileo. He is a classy and versatile horse, and he could challenge West Wind Blows for the win.
Soulcombe is the dark horse of the race, with odds of 16/1. He also has a favourable weight, carrying only 51kg. He’s a tough and resilient horse, and she could surprise everyone with a big upset.
I’m putting some money on West Wind Blows to win the Caulfield Cup, as I think he has the best combination of form, fitness and favourable factors. But, I’m going to hedge some bets on Gold Trip and Soulcombe to place, as they have shown enough quality and potential to make it to the podium.
Disclaimer: Sports betting is a form of gambling that involves risk and uncertainty. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose. We do not endorse or guarantee any outcomes or results from our tips or odds.