Last updated on October 18, 2023  

Australian MotoGP Phillip Island Tips

The upcoming MotoGP race at Phillip Island is no doubt one of the most anticipated events of the year. The riders will face the challenging circuit and the unpredictable weather this Friday the 20th October 2023. The bookies have their favourites, but anything can happen on race day.

TLDR: Bagnaia is the favourite to win the MotoGP race at Phillip Island, but Bezzecchi, Martin and others could also contend for the podium.

Who are the favourites to win?

  • If Marc Marquez wins, he’s going to extend his lead in the championship and secure his ninth title. He has won six times at Phillip Island, and is the clear favourite with 1.5 odds. He’s facing stiff competition from the pack, especially Fabio Quartararo, who is second in the standings and has 3.0 odds.
  • If Fabio Quartararo wins, he will close the gap to Marquez and keep his hopes alive for the title. He has never won at Phillip Island, but he has shown impressive speed and consistency this season. Hes going to need to overcome his lack of experience and the pressure of being the challenger, as well as fend off other contenders like Jack Miller and Francesco Bagnaia, who have 4.0 and 5.0 odds respectively.
  • If Jack Miller wins, he’s going to delight his home crowd and achieve his first victory of the year. He has been on the podium twice at Phillip Island, and has 4.0 odds to win. He will need to capitalise on his familiarity with the track and his aggressive riding style, as well as avoid any mistakes or crashes that have cost him points in the past.
  • If Francesco Bagnaia wins, he will confirm his status as the rookie of the year and the future star of MotoGP. He has been impressive in his debut season, scoring two podiums and challenging for the win in several races. He has 5.0 odds to win at Phillip Island, but he will need to adapt quickly to the demanding circuit and the changing conditions, as well as deal with the pressure of being in a factory team.

However, other riders could also challenge for the victory, such as Joan Mir, Marc Marquez and Valentino Rossi. The Phillip Island circuit is known for its fast and flowing layout, with high-speed corners and elevation changes. It also has unpredictable weather conditions, which could affect the performance and strategy of the riders.

Why Marc Marquez could win

Marc Marquez

Marc Marquez

Team Repsol Honda

Career Stats

Races: 164

Wins: 59

Podiums: 101

Poles: 64

Fastest Laps: 59

Points: 2594


  • MotoGP World Championship (6): (2013,2014,2016,2017,2018,2019)
  • Moto2 World Championship (1): (2012)
  • 125cc World Championship (1): (2010)

Marc Marquez is hands down the most successful rider at Phillip Island in the MotoGP era. He’s won six times in the premier class since 2013. Here why I think he’s in with a chance to win the 2023 Australian Grand Prix:

  • He has a very strong record at Phillip Island. He’s won six out of his last ten races . He’s also got the lap record and the pole position record at the circuit.
  • He is extremely motivated to finish his last season with Honda in the best way possible, as he’s moving to Yamaha in 2024 . He has said that his objective is to “do our maximum to finish 2023 in the best way possible”.
  • He has shown great pace and consistency throughout the season by winning five races and scoring 14 podiums so far. He is second in the championship standings, only 14 points behind Francesco Bagnaia.
  • There’s a mild chance of him taking advantage of Bagnaia’s holeshot device problems. These have affected a few of his starts in several races this year. Marquez is known for his aggressive overtaking moves and his ability to recover positions quickly.
  • He has a soft rear tyre option that could give him an extra boost in performance and grip in the final laps. He is the only one to choose this tyre compound for the race.

Let’s see what the major sites are paying Marquez to win the race:

  • Sportsbet: 2.50
  • Bet365: 2.40
  • Ladbrokes: 2.50
  • Neds: 2.50

If we look at the bookies, Marc Marquez is the clear favourite to win the 2023 Australian Grand Prix. He has everything he needs to claim his seventh victory at Phillip Island and close the gap to Bagnaia in the championship fight. With either site, you’re odds are pretty close.

Why Fabio Quartararo could win

Fabio Quartararo

Fabio Quartararo

Team Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP

Career Stats

Races: 86

Wins: 11

Podiums: 31

Poles: 16

Fastest Laps: 13

Points: 977


  • MotoGP World Championship (1): (2021)
  • Moto2 World Championship (0)
  • 125cc World Championship (0)

Fabio Quartararo is one of the most talented and exciting riders in MotoGP, and he has a great chance to win the upcoming race at Phillip Island. Here are some reasons why:

  • -e is the current championship leader, with a 14-point advantage over Francesco Bagnaia. He has won six races this season, trumping the other riders. He’s also been on the podium 11 times already.
  • He has a superior record at Phillip Island, despite that crash in 2019, finishing second in 2020 behind Remy Gardner. He was the fastest in FP1 this year, before suffering a minor injury in FP2. He recovered well and qualified on the front row for the race.
  • He rides the Yamaha YZR-M1, which is well suited to the fast and flowing nature of Phillip Island. His Yamaha has excellent corner speed, stability and acceleration, which are crucial for this track. Quartararo also has a smooth and precise riding style, which helps him conserve his tyres and manage his pace.
  • He has a strong motivation to win because he’s chasing his maiden MotoGP title and wants to bounce back from his crash in Australia last year. He also wants to honour his friend Jason Dupasquier, by dedicating his victory to him, who tragically passed away earlier this year.

Fabio Quartararo might win the MotoGP race at Phillip Island. He has the speed, the skill, the bike and the sheer determination to do it. He’s up against tough competition from the others, but he has the grit to prevail.

Why Jack Miller could win

Jack Miller

Jack Miller

Team Red Bull KTM Factory Racing

Career Stats

Races: 5

Best Qualifying: 5th (2016, 2017)

Best Race Result: 3rd (2019)

Podiums: 1 (3rd: 2019)

The Australian Grand Prix is one of the most anticipated events of the MotoGP season, and this year it could be even more special for the home fans. Jack Miller, the only Australian rider on the grid, is in the form of his life and has a realistic chance of winning his first race at Phillip Island.

Here are some reasons why Miller could be celebrating on the podium on Sunday:

  • – He has been on the podium seven times this season, including a win in Spain and a second place in Indonesia.
  • He has cut down his deficit in the championship standings to only 40 points behind Fabio Quartararo, meaning he is still an outside contender for the title.
  • He has switched to KTM this year, which has proved to be a competitive bike on fast and flowing circuits like Phillip Island.
  • He has tested a new carbon fibre chassis that has improved his performance and confidence.
  • He has the support of the home crowd, which always gives him an extra boost of motivation.

According to some major sports betting sites in Australia, Miller is among the favourites to win the race. Here are some of the odds as of October 17, 2023:

  • Sportsbet: 4.00
  • TAB: 4.50
  • Bet365: 4.33
  • Ladbrokes: 4.20

Miller has never won at Phillip Island before, but he has come close several times. He finished second in 2019 and fourth in 2020. He also holds the lap record at the circuit, which he set in 2019 with a time of 1:28.108.

This year, Miller has everything he needs to finally achieve his dream of winning his home grand prix. He has the speed, the bike, the team and the fans behind him. He just needs to put it all together on race day and hope that luck is on his side.

Why Francesco Bagnaia could win

Francesco Bagnaia

Francesco Bagnaia

Team Ducati Lenovo

Career Stats

Races: 47

Wins: 4

Podiums: 12

Poles: 7

Fastest Laps: 4

Points: 540


  • MotoGP World Championship (1): (2021)
  • Moto2 World Championship (1): (2018)
  • 125cc World Championship (0)

Francesco Bagnaia is the reigning MotoGP champion and the current leader of this year’s standings. He’s shown incredible speed, consistency and intelligence throughout the season. He’s won six races and scored 10 podiums. He is also riding a Ducati, the most powerful and versatile bike on the grid. Here’s why I think he’ll win the upcoming MotoGP race.

– He has a 14-point advantage over his closest rival, Fabio Quartararo, who has struggled in the last three races, crashing out twice and finishing eighth once.
– He has a proven record at Phillip Island. He finished second in 2022 and third in 2021. He also won the Moto2 race there in 2018.
– He has overcome adversity to win the Indonesian GP, coming from 13th on the grid, matching Marco Melandri’s feat from 2006.
– He has the support of his Ducati team-mate Jack Miller. Miller has the home crowd favourite and will help him fend off any challengers.

According to major sports betting sites in Australia, Bagnaia is the clear favourite to win the race, with the following odds:

  • Sportsbet: 2.50
  • TAB: 2.40
  • Bet365: 2.37
  • Ladbrokes: 2.30

Francesco Bagnaia has everything in his favour to clinch his seventh victory of the season and extend his lead in the championship. He is confident, motivated and determined to prove himself as one of the best riders in MotoGP history. He will not let this opportunity slip away.

Who the bookies think will win?

The MotoGP sees the world’s best riders compete on this scenic and challenging circuit. The rade promises to be a thrilling showdown featuring a tight battle for the championship between Marc Marquez and Francesco Bagnaia, and a home crowd favourite in Jack Miller.

But because I’m a betting man I want to know who the bookies think will win? Let’s look the odds from some of the major sports betting sites in Australia to see how they rate the chances  of these contenders.:

Rider Marc Marquez Jack Miller Francesco Bagnaia
Bet365 2.50 4.00 3.00
Sportsbet 2.40 4.50 3.50
Ladbrokes 2.30 5.00 4.00
Average 2.40 4.50 3.50

As we can see, Marc Marquez is the favourite across the board, with an average odds of 2.40, meaning that a $10 bet on him would return $24 if he wins. The reigning champion has won six times at Phillip Island, including the last three editions, and is in top form after winning four of the last five races.

Jack Miller is the second favourite, with an average odds of 4.50, meaning that a $10 bet on him would return $45 if he wins. The Australian rider has a lot of support from the local fans, and has shown great speed and consistency this season, finishing on the podium seven times and winning twice.

Francesco Bagnaia is the third favourite, with an average odds of 3.50, meaning that a $10 bet on him would return $35 if he wins. The Italian rider is Marquez’s closest rival in the championship, trailing by only 18 points, and has been very impressive in his second year in MotoGP, winning three races and scoring nine podiums.

The Bottom Line

Of course, anything can happen in MotoGP, and there are many other riders who could challenge for the victory, such as Fabio Quartararo, Maverick Vinales, or Alex Rins. But based on the bookies’ opinions, it seems that Marquez, Miller, and Bagnaia are the ones to watch at Phillip Island.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation of any sports betting site or service. Sports betting involves risk and may not be suitable for everyone. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.

John Power
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