The A-League F3 derby is coming up between Central Coast Mariners and Newcastle Jets on Saturday, November 25. The Mariners are looking for their first win of the season, but who has the edge according to the bookies? In this article, I’ll analyse the odds, the form, and the key players of both sides, and give my prediction for the outcome of the match.
Why I think the Mariners will get up
The Central Coast Mariners have been in great form lately, almost winning four of their last five games and scoring 2 goals in the process. They have a balanced squad with experienced players like Matt Simon and Oliver Bozanic, as well as young talents like Alou Kuol and Daniel De Silva. They also have a strong home record, having won six of their nine games at Central Coast Stadium in the past 2 years. Here’s why I think the Mariners will get up:
- The Newcastle Jets are struggling to find the back of the net, having scored only 10 goals in 14 games, the lowest in the league. They have also failed to score in their last three games, losing two and drawing one.
- The Mariners have a psychological edge over the Jets, having beaten them twice already this season, 1-0 and 2-0. The Jets have not won against the Mariners since February 2019, when they won 3-2 at McDonald Jones Stadium.
- The Mariners have a motivated coach in Nick Montgomery, who took over from Alen Stajcic in October. Montgomery is a former Mariners captain who played 116 games for the club and won the A-League title in 2013. He knows what it takes to win big games and will inspire his players to do the same.
- The Mariners are also sporting the home game advantage. They love nothing more than getting up on their waterfront setting.
The Mariners have what it takes to win this game and get some points on the table. They have been consistent, confident and clinical throughout the season, even while languishing at the bottom. I cautiously think that the Mariners will get up by a comfortable margin of 2-0.
Who to watch: Brian Kaltak
Jersey #: 4
The Vanuatu international joined the Mariners in 2022 after impressing in the Oceania Champions League. He has been a solid and reliable presence in the backline, making 15 appearances and scoring one goal so far this season. He is strong in the air, quick on the ground and composed on the ball. He will be crucial in stopping the Jets’ attack and launching counter-attacks for the Mariners.
Why I think the Jets will get up
The Newcastle Jets have been in good form lately, winning a win on the board and scoring a few goals in the process. They have a strong attack led by Roy O’Donovan and Valentino Yuel, who have combined for nine goals this season. They also have a solid defence, but have conceding 9 goals this season already. It’s a tough match to call but here are some reasons why I think the Jets could get up against the Mariners:
- The Jets have a psychological edge over the Mariners, having won the last four F3 derbies, including a 2-1 victory in January.
- The Mariners have been struggling with injuries and suspensions, missing key players like Matt Simon, Oliver Bozanic and Gianni Stensness in recent games.
- The Jets have more motivation to win, as they are chasing a top-six spot and a chance to play in the finals, while the Mariners are comfortably sitting in second place and have already secured a finals berth.
In conclusion, I think the Jets could get up against the Mariners. They have more quality, confidence and hunger than their rivals. It will be a close and exciting game, but the Jets have a great chance to edge it by a narrow margin.
Who to watch: Valentino Yuel
Jersey #: 9
The speedy and skillful attacker is one of the most exciting players in the A-League. He scored six goals and provided three assists for the Jets last season, and he has already opened his account this campaign with a stunning strike against Melbourne City. He is a constant threat to any defence with his pace, dribbling and finishing ability. Keep an eye on his runs behind the backline and his link-up play with his teammates.
What do the bookies say?
The Mariners are looking for their first win of the season after losing all of their opening games. Who will come out on top in this local F3 derby?
Here’s what the major bookmakers are offering for the game, as of November 20th:
|Bookmaker||Central Coast Mariners||Draw||Newcastle Jets|
Looking closely at the odds, Central Coast Mariners are the favourites to win the game, with an average win probability of 45%. Newcastle Jets are the underdogs, with an average win probability of 30%. The draw is also a possible outcome, with an average probability of 25%.
However, odds are not everything. Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses. Central Coast Mariners have a potent attack, led by Jason Cummings, and the Newcastle Jets have a solid defence. Nikolai Topor-Stanley and Lachlan Jackson for a reliable partnership at the back.
I’m hoping the game will be a close and competitive one, with both teams eager to claim bragging rights and three points.
The Bottom Line
Both teams are in OK form and have a good chance to win the F3 derby on Saturday. The bookies are clearly favouring the Mariners, even on their losing streak. The Jets, on the other hand, have also been impressive, scoring 8 goals in their last few matches and climbing to seventh place. This game could be a close one, with both teams having strong attacks and solid defences.
A draw is not unlikely, but I think the Mariners have a slight edge and will take the three points. However, this is only my opinion and not a guarantee.
Disclaimer: Online sportsbetting is risky and you should only bet what you can afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly.